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The Hottest Person in the Group

Suppose you think you're pretty good-looking. In fact, you think you're at about the 90th percentile--you're hotter than 90% of people and not as hot as the other 10%. If I put you with another nine random people, you'd think, at least heuristically, that you're probably the hottest one out of the ten. This is in fact not true.

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